The 2015 first quarter sales results in Pebble Beach and the prime parts of Carmel showed clear slowing, with varying impacts throughout the price spectrum; too early to call trend lines but, as always, some interesting patterns and nuances worth noting:
– The number of closed sales was down 30% from 4Q 2014; however, we’re carrying 20 pending sales into Q2 so we may yet see a return to the mean as we move into our peak selling season.
– The dominant market in Pebble remains under $2.5M, with 75% of all sales.
– We saw a surge in activity between $2.5-$4M, with 4 closed sales and 3 pending sales.
– Some activity between $6-$8M but comatose north of $8M. Real soft spot is between $8-$15M – sellers can expect aggressive discounting there to bring deals together.
– Carmel actually saw an even greater decline in closed sales, falling 35%; however, rather than due to lack of demand, this has been more due to lack of supply, a condition we see persisting for some time. With 22 pending sales Carmel is also poised to catch up to market averages but it appears unlikely to reach 2014 levels.
– Carmel also remains predominantly an under $2.5M market but did see a surge in deals between $4-6M and one very large deal at $12.75M (the third highest sale in Carmel history).
– A highly favored location, Carmel Point sales slowed to a crawl last quarter – very tight inventory on The Point right now.
We’ve also added analysis on the Carmel Meadows/Highlands markets (extending south through Otter Cove), as well as the Quail Lodge/Meadows markets:
– Historically slower moving with longer days-on-market, we saw a fairly significant spike in interest in this mar-ket. That said, inventory is high and action slow in the $4-$15M range.
– Quail Lodge has enjoyed a huge rebound the past two years and Q1 is off to a record start. The only thing that will likely hold that market back will be tightening inventory levels.
– We saw the first sale north of $2M at Quail Lodge ($2.1M) since 2009. We do see demand rising up the price spectrum and are closely watching demand north of $2M.
As always, if you have any specific questions on the market feel free to give us a call or shoot us an email.
Yours very truly,
Mike, Jess and Nic