Well, Concours week here in Carmel and Pebble Beach last week was a heckuva week. Lots of fun, cars, parties and, traffic. Record attendance all around and great weather all week this year.
Quite disparate impacts in the Pebble Beach and prime Carmel markets: Carmel went into a coma, with zero new or closed sales. Somewhat inexplicably, Pebble Beach roared with 5 new sales, all 5 between $1.8 and $4.5, and 3 closed sales, all 3 in that hot bracket at or under $1M.
Encouraging to see the demand in Pebble firm up between $2-$4M; however, that demand rising up the price spectrum has yet to carry momentum into the $5-$9M range, where there is some quality product to be found. We’re keeping a close eye on that sector as inventory levels are beginning to widen there.
Carmel has been slowing of late but to be blanked in a week is somewhat startling. A week doesn’t make a trend but we are keeping a close eye for emerging trend lines.
On a broader level, our crystal ball is forecasting a plateau in the marketplace in the not-too-distant future. If past local market cycles offer any insight, we would anticipate the recent recovery in values to level off with inventory rising, days-on-market for listings to begin to stretch out, and prices stabilizing. Rising interest rates will begin to dampen activity at the lower price points and there will be an impact from the bottom up that will ripple through the marketplace.
The cautionary tale we would share is primarily for sellers: If you own a quality property and have been on the market for 6 months or more the market has spoken and it may be prudent to adjust pricing sooner rather than later; as the market plateaus, time is not a friend of the sales process.
Mike, Lynn and Jess