Carmel and Pebble Beach 3rd Quarter Market Comments

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The third quarter in Pebble Beach and the prime parts of Carmel have a few very interesting tales to tell:

Pebble Beach:

– Overall, Pebble outpaced Carmel in the third quarter, with Pebble’s sales rising relative to last quarter and at a pace likely to match or surpass 2012 sales for the year.

– With 18 sales pending and the typical seasonal slow down that we see in the final quarter, our projection is that 2013 will match last year’s robust sales – but a plateau will be revealed; within the plateau, there will be winners and losers within specific price brackets.

– The $6-8M bracket is the softest, with no sales last quarter and the outlook in the $4-6M bracket bears watching with just one pending sale and 9 properties available. $4-5M sales have been healthy but the market has run out of gas north of $5M.

– The hottest bracket all year has been the under-$1M bracket; 17 sales last quarter and 7 pending, with only 10 in inventory. This bracket is set to break all historical records this year.

– We were fortunate to close the two highest-priced sales in Pebble last quarter: ocean front properties priced at $22M and $28M, the highest prices Pebble has seen since 2005.

Carmel:

– Within the prime parts of Carmel, The Point outshone The Golden Rectangle. We’ve observed this tilt taking shape for a number of years as people who originally buy a place in the Rectangle later go looking for something a bit larger, quieter.

– Sales slowed last quarter, in both areas; however, The Point has 5 pending sales, to the Rectangle’s 3.

– For the first time that we can remember in the past 25 years, there is zero inventory under $2M on Carmel Point. The slow down in sales clearly being influenced by the inventory shortage.

– With 21 closed sales year to date and 5 in escrow, The Point is virtually certain to break all records this year.

– The average discount off of asking price narrowed considerably in Carmel, to 4.2%

It was very interesting to note that, of the sales last quarter in Carmel and Pebble, 16 sales were handled in an ‘off-market’ manner (6 in Carmel and 10 in Pebble Beach), including the two highest-priced sales in Pebble and the highest priced sale in Carmel.  Recognizing this mutual interest in interacting in that platform, we are continuing to endeavor to build the best venue for buyers and sellers – more improvements to follow.

So, a solid quarter – better in Pebble, Carmel slowing, inventory incredibly tight to non-existent at the lower levels. All things considered, this was a good quarter for each market, both of which will approach historically record levels for the year absent some extreme event.

To view our full market statistics summary, click here.

Best Regards,

Mike, Lynn and Jess