4Q15 Market Insight Report

ellen Weekly Blog

Sales rebound at the end of 2015 in Pebble Beach, Carmel, the Carmel Highlands and Quail to post banner years. Below are the highlights for each region with detailed analysis on the link below.

Pebble Beach –

– The number of closed sales in 4Q’15 surged 29% over 4Q’14 (40 and 30 respectively) bringing the total annual sales to 143, the highest number seen since 2000.

– The $3M-4M bracket had a banner year with 14 sales – surpassing the historic peak of 12 in 2008. The $2M-4M inventory is particularly tight with just 11 actively listed and 7 closed escrows in 4Q’15.

– The bottom of the market (under $1M) accounted for just 23% of total sales this year, the lowest ratio since 2007. Investors continue to snap up properties in this price bracket with homes selling in just 88 days.

– The year finished off very strong with 3 sales over $8M, bringing the total sales for this bracket in line with the historical average of 4. Although this is down from the 8 sales in 2014, the strong quarter is great momentum leading up to AT&T.

Carmel –

– Sales in the prime parts of Carmel surged this quarter with 54 closed escrows – up 38% from last quarter and 17% of 4Q’14.

– Supply continues to be the tightest on record in The Golden Rectangle and Carmel Point as demand starts to shift toward Northwest and Northeastern Carmel (13 and 10 sales respectively this quarter).

– Prices continue to inch up with only 40 sales coming in under $1M in 2015, down from 51 in 2013; the 16 sales from $1.5M-2M this quarter was the highest seen for this bracket in over a decade.

– We have seen some softness in the $3-4M bracket this year with just 9 sales, down from 20 last year. This is primarily driven by a lack of supply in Carmel Point and the Golden Rectangle, as they have accounted for approximately 70% of deals in this bracket over the past 10 years.

Carmel Highlands –

– The Highlands and Meadows finished the year off strong with 9 closed escrows, bringing the 2015 total to 40 – the highest levels seen since 2000.

– Sales were balanced across all price brackets this quarter with $3M-4M having a particularly strong year with 5 sales (up from the 2 in 2014).

– The opportunity for purchasing oceanfront property below $6M appears to have passed as all 4 properties listed from $4M-6M sold this quarter and for the first time in over 5 years there’s nothing available in this price range.

– The top of the market remains healthy with 3 sales this year above $6M, surpassing last year and with just 5 active listings we anticipate this bracket remaining steady into 2016.

Quail Lodge & Meadows –

– Quail Lodge finally slowed down this quarter with just 2 sales, driven by a lack of supply. We’re also seeing more off market sales starting to occur in Quail – another sign of demand outstripping supply.

– As prices continue to rise in Quail Lodge, we’re seeing sales above $2M for the first time in 10 years. The 3 sales north of $2M this year tied an all-time record set in 2006.

– Quail Meadows had one sale this quarter: 5453 Quail Meadows Drive closed escrow at $3.4M, almost 12% off of list price.

– Currently, there are 4 active listings in Quail Meadows with 3 additional properties available off market, which continues to put pressure on prices. As the delta between Quail Lodge and Meadows continues to narrow, it will be interesting to see if we see more buyers shift their focus to larger estates in the Meadows in 2016.