3Q18 MARKET REPORT

ellen Weekly Blog

The market continued to roll this quarter with over $306M sold in Carmel, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Quail and the Preserve. This is a 1.5% increase over last quarter but a 46% increase over 3Q17, with each of the key regions showing a net increase over this quarter last year. Additionally, the first three quarters of this year have almost surpassed all of 2017 ($869M and $872M respectively). This is mainly attributed to a surge in high-end sales as the total deal flow for this quarter was just 95 sales which is down from last quarter (131) but matches the 95 closed escrows in 3Q17. Worth noting that although deal flow is down from last quarter, it’s still above the historical 3Q average of 83. Nearly 10% of deal flow this quarter was above $6M and accounted for 38% of the total dollar volume, which is up from 18% for this price bracket last quarter and just 10% of 3Q17. Putting this into historical perspective, the market hit a 3Q low in 2010 when a total of $73M was sold in these four key regions – a striking rebound by all accounts.

Carmel came in with the most deals representing 47% of all deal flow this quarter, with Pebble coming in a close second at 38 closed escrows. The Carmel Highlands market was down slightly with just 4 deals this quarter, but similar to the rest of the regions, the $25.7M sold is up significantly from 3Q17 which had $13.2M in sales. The only regions that saw in increase in deal flow this quarter over the same period last year were Quail and the Preserve, which saw sales jump up to 8 this quarter, from just 1 sale in 3Q17. In 2018, there have been 26 deals north of $6M with some surprising variance between the regions in this price bracket: all 6 of Carmel’s sales were between $6-8M with nothing closing above $8M since 3Q17; Pebble Beach actually had more sales above $8M than between $6-8M (9 and 6 deals respectively); the Carmel Highlands was perfectly balanced with 2 deals that sold between $6-8M and 2 that closed north of $8M; and one sale in the Preserve this year that closed in the $6-8M bracket. The bottom of the market appears to have all but dried up, with sales below $1.5M representing only 35% of total deals in 2018, down from the historic average of 52% of deals and from the high reached in 2010 of 62% of total deal flow.

As this market continues to shift up, prices continue to rise, pushing overall median sales price to $2.05M this quarter – up 14% from the same period last year. This pace appears to be accelerating as the median price for all of 2018 is at $1.875M which was already at a 10 year high and 63% higher than the low we saw in 2012. We’re watching the middle of the market the closest to see if the lack of supply will drive buyers out of the market or if they’ll start looking closer at higher price points – a good barometer for where the market might be headed.

Here is our full 3Q18 report:

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