3Q17 Quarterly Update

ellen Weekly Blog

Market Overview

 

Pebble Beach

– After starting Q3 at a robust pace (24 sales in 1st half of Q3), Pebble’s market sustained that momentum to finish on a strong note with 39 sales (up 5% from 2Q17). Worth noting that 39 sales matched the highest in sales volume for any Q3 since ’00.

– Encouraging to see a rebound in activity for the mid-to-upper price brackets with 5 sales in the $3-$4M range (twice the average of Q3 totals); 3 sales in the $4-6M range (up 33% average Q3 totals) and 2 sales in the $6M-$8M range (up 60% from average Q3 totals).

– The top of the market (above $8M) remains sluggish with just 1 closed escrow ($10M, off-market) and 1 sale pending – compared to last year, which had 5 sales by through Q3.

– The $1M-$1.5M and $1.5M-$2M price brackets continue to be the most liquid ranges in Pebble’s market with the shortest average days on market (95 & 94 days respectively) and tightest discounting (-5% and -6% sale off list prices respectively) – keeping the needle pointed toward a seller’s market for those brackets.

– Inventory levels have buoyed just above the 80 listing marker for the 2nd quarter in a row, while continuing to be top-heavy with 36% of listings above $5M.

– The MPCC area continues to lead the way with the most activity (23 sales, down 8% from Q2), while Central Pebble picked up (10 sales, up 30% from Q2) and the Upper Forest leveled off (5 sales, matching Q2).

Carmel

– Carmel gained momentum in Q3 with 50 sales (45 on-market/5 off-market), up 4% from Q2 and notably higher than the seasonally adjusted average of 41 sales.

– The Golden Rectangle led all areas in activity with 17 sales – the most in a Q3 since ’05. Compared to their respective Q3 averages, Carmel Point (up 23%), Hatton Fields (up 48%) and Northwest Carmel (up 23%) boasted strong quarters while the Northeast (down 37%) and Southeast (down 60%) areas slowed.

– The uptick in activity has tightened inventory levels across the board (down 12%) since their peak of 96 actively listed, which crested amidst Car Week in late August.

– The $3M-$4M price bracket had a record setting Q3 with 8 sales (6 in Golden Rectangle) while the $6-$8M range went silent for the second quarter in a row.

– Worth noting that the entry ticket for Carmel continues to hover above the $1M threshold as activity below that marker reached its slowest pace in 10 years.

Carmel Highlands

– Activity in the Highlands held steady in Q3 (6 sales), matching Q2’s totals, while Carmel Meadows slowed with zero sales – mostly due to a lack of supply (1 active listing throughout Q3).

– With the majority of Q3’s sales in the lower price brackets(<$4M), the total dollar amount for Q3 dropped from Q2 (down $8.45M) despite similar sales volumes.

– As sales at the top of the market ($4M+) stalled in Q3, a glut in inventory has developed – representing over half of active listings. Also worth noting that inventory levels have risen from Q2 (up 29%), almost matching 2016’s peak of 32 actively listed (30 in Q3).

– The $2.5-$3M price bracket was a bright spot in the Highlands market, hosting the most activity for a Q3 in this price bracket since ’01.

– Although sales have been slow in the upper ranges, we’ve seen an uptick in interest as of late and sense there might be a shift in direction for the Highlands going into Q4.

Quail

– Quail and the Preserve had a slow 3Q with just 1 closed escrow, which was 7036 Valley Greens Circle that closed at $2.3M.

– Inventory remains tight in Quail Lodge and the Meadows with just two condos and one house on River Place actively listed. The Preserve continues to see nice activity with 2 new sales this quarter, both set to close in the next 3 months.

– Somewhat surprisingly, there are no actively listed properties in Quail Meadows – a clear sign of strong demand in this area as all of the supply is being absorbed.

– Leading the pack is our listing at 5493 Oak Trail listed at $5,850,000 which is set to close in 1Q2018.