3Q16 Quarterly Market Update

ellen Weekly Blog

Sales activity in 3Q’16 in Pebble Beach, Carmel, Carmel Highlands and Quail remained steady despite tight inventories.  Below are the highlights for each region with detailed analysis in the link at the bottom of the page.


– Pebble’s market bounced back in Q3 with 37 total sales- eclipsing the previous two Q3 totals while recovering some of the tapering that occurred in the first half of ’16.

– Central Pebble led the Forest this quarter with 17 closed escrows- upsetting MPCC as title holder for the first time since 1Q11.

– The $3-4M range extended its torrid pace with 7 sales in Q3, already besting 2015’s 14 sales and the highest level seen for this price bracket in history with the final quarter still to come.

– Coming off of a surge in activity in Q2 (12 sales), the Upper Forest cooled down in Q3 to its seasonal average of 6 sales.

– The top of the market (8M+) remains active with 5 closed escrows to date, surpassing 2015 (4) and with 2 more due to close in Q4.

– Based on current escrows in process and market trends, Pebble is forecasted to finish 2016 on a strong note.


– The prime parts of Carmel slowed to seasonally adjusted averages with 34 sales in Q3- the bulk of which occurred in the areas North of Ocean Ave (59% of sales).

– The Golden Rectangle and Carmel Point areas continue to experience supply/demand imbalances- generating the slowest quarters in both areas since 4Q05. With historically low supply levels in those areas, sellers can anticipate buyers’ bargaining power to remain low going into the final quarter of ’16.

– Although always variable and hard to predict, the top of the market quieted down in Q3, with the last sale above $6M occurring back in April.

– The $1.5-$2M bracket moved at a robust pace this quarter with the most sales (9) and second fewest average days on market (109).

– With our typical seasonal slowdown in Q4 and 24 sales currently pending, Carmel’s market is forecasted to finish the year just shy of 2015’s 185 sales.


– Activity in the Highlands has come in line with the historical average of 20 sales a year with 3 closed escrows this quarter, which brings the total for 2016 up to 17.

–Although deal-flow will be approximately half what it was in 2016 (an all-time high), the pace of new listings and sales is steady and balanced across the price and geographic spectrum.

– Days on market is currently 185 days, which is 31% higher than the overall average. This is driven by a few higher priced listings on the coast that have been sitting on the market for over 300 days.

– The slower deal-flow hasn’t had an impact on prices as the median price paid so far in 2016 in the Highlands and Meadows is $2.338M, up 18% from last year and the highest level seen since 2005. The recent Soberanes fire may have had an impact on new sales. With the fire at 98% containment, activity in the Highlands has appears to have rebounded.


– The storyline for Quail this year has been the resurgence of the Quail Meadows market, which will post a banner year with the most sales (7) since inception.  This quarter was also highlighted by a $6.2M sale on Quail Way – the first time the $6M marker has been eclipsed since 2002.

–Sellers in both the Meadows and Lodge areas benefited from the spike in demand as the discount between ask and sell in Q3 tightened to their lowest levels in 3 years.

– The Quail Lodge area had a similar outcome in Q3 with 6 closed escrows and 5 currently pending – a robust quarter by all historical standards.

– Fairway Place is on a hot streak this year and is poised to surpass the high-water price mark set last year ($2.35M) with 7075 Fairway Pl in escrow at an ask of $2.695M.