3Q15 Market Insights Report

ellen Weekly Blog

Tightened inventory across the primary neighborhoods in Pebble Beach, Carmel, the Carmel Highlands and Quail slows overall activity. Below are the highlights for each region with detailed analysis on the link below.

Pebble Beach

– The number of closed sales in 3Q’15 was down 16% from 2Q’15 and with 25 currently in escrow going into 4Q’15, 2015 will likely fall short of 2014’s record setting 142 sales.

– The entry ticket into Pebble nudges further above the $1M threshold as median home prices rose again this quarter, bringing the 2015 price to $1.488M, up 5% over 2014 ($1.42M).

– The market remains strong below $2M with over 65% of all sales coming in this bracket in 3Q’15. The $3-4M sector continued to thrive in 3Q’15 and remains on pace to reaching the highest levels on record.

– We continue to see an inventory imbalance north of $6M with 15 actively listed, 2 pending and just 2 that have closed so far in 2015. However, we’ve seen a recent uptick in buyers circling in this price range, so we do anticipate a few more closing prior to the years end.


– The overriding lack of inventory in Carmel resulted in a slower quarter with just 39 sales in3Q’15, a 22% drop in activity compared to 2Q’15 and 26% less than 3Q’14.

– The Golden Rectangle bounced back this quarter with 11 sales (up 36% over last quarter); Southeast Carmel has already surpassed all of 2014 with 25 sales YTD (up 25% over all of 2014) and on target to have the most sales in over 5 years.

– The top of the market in Carmel continues to stay strong with 11 sales above $4M so far this year, almost meeting the 12 in all of 2014.

– The average days on market for a home in Carmel has dropped to 109, the fastest rate of any of the regions that we track.

Carmel Highlands & Meadows

– The tightening inventory levels in the Carmel Meadows and Highlands has slowed activity this quarter to just 5 sales (down from the 11 in 2Q’15). However, with 31 sales so far in 2015, we’ve already surpassed the 26 sales for all of 2014.

– The tilt toward a sellers market continues as there is less and less room for negotiation; sales prices are off just 5.5% from list prices so far in 2015, the lowest rate in over 15 years.

– The floor for this market has risen with just 3 properties currently on the market at $2M or below; the 17 sales in this bracket so far in 2015 is already a 42% increase over all of 2014.

– The top of the market continues to move with 5 sales above $4M so far this year, on target to match the 8 sales seen in 2014 and 2013.

Quail Meadows & Lodge

– Quail Lodge is currently on target to have the most sales in history and has already matched the 17 sales seen in all of 2014.

– Demand for homes in Quail Lodge continues to exceed supply with houses selling on average in 53 days this year – the fastest pace on the Peninsula.

– Due to the surge in fixers hitting the market, sales prices have actually decreased this year to a median of $1.15M, down 10% from 2014 ($1.275M). However, this is 52% higher than in 2012 ($756K).

– Although we have seen an increase in interest over the past few months, there have been no closed escrows in Quail Meadows so far this year. 5453 Quail Meadows Drive is currently in escrow with a list price of $3.85M, set to close in November.

Here is a link to the full report with interactive graphs broken down for each of these regions. If you have any questions related to this report or trends in your area, feel free to email me at jessica@canningproperties.com.

3Q15 Quarterly Market Insights