2Q16 Quarterly Market Update

ellen Weekly Blog

Sales activity in 2Q’16 in Pebble Beach, Carmel, Carmel Highlands and Quail remained robust despite tight inventories throughout.  Below are the highlights for each region with detailed analysis in the link at the bottom of the page.


– Pebble’s market performed as we anticipated, ticking at a slower pace in Q2’16 (34 sales)- down 15% from the previous two Q2’s (40 & 38 sales respectively).

– The MPCC area led all areas in sales this quarter, representing approximately 50% of closed escrows and 31% of currently pending sales. With the reopening of MPCC’s Dunes course, there’s been a surge in demand for properties surrounding the Country Club.

– Despite having the tightest inventory levels in Pebble, the Upper Forest had a robust Quarter- edging Central Pebble for second highest number of sales (12 sales).

-The top of the market quieted down this quarter with just one closed escrow above the $6M threshold – we do anticipate that to change with 3 due to close in Q3’16.

– The $3-$4M sector remains hot with 9 sales thus far and 2 currently in escrow- on pace to challenge 2015’s record of 14 sales.

– Worth noting that Pebble’s inventory has risen to its highest level in 2016 while we advance through the core of our primary selling season.


-Despite historically low inventory levels, the prime parts of Carmel had a robust 2nd quarter (53 sales)- edging out the previous two Q2’s (both had 51 sales). This came as a surprise as Carmel initially projected to taper slightly, but then roared back with a surge in June sales.

– The bottom of the market flourished with 26 sales this quarter, with the Northeast and Hatton areas combining for over 46% of sales under $1.5M. With tight inventory levels to the South, it came as little surprise that NW Carmel surpassed the Golden Rectangle (the epicenter of our market) in the number of properties sold this quarter.

-Worth noting that there’s a soft spot in Carmel’s market- the $2.5-$3M range had just one sale in Q2. We do anticipate that to change in the near future with 1 in escrow and 12 currently active.

-The top of the market remained active with our frontline listing at 7 Sand & Sea selling in Q2 at $10.7M. Currently, there are 4 active listings on Scenic Road and 2 at Sand & Sea (West side of San Antonio).


-The Highlands market rebounded from a lackluster performance in the 1st quarter (6 sales) with 8 sales in Q2- coming just short of the previous two Q2’s sales totals (11 a piece).

-The majority of activity occurred in the $1.5-$2.5M ranges, representing 50% of sales in both the Highlands and Meadows.

-The top of the market has come to a halt with zero sales above $4M in 2016. It’s also the most saturated part of the market with 40% of active listings above the $4M threshold (7 oceanfront).

-The entry ticket for the Highlands ($1.6M) remains the highest in the areas we cover- edging Carmel Point ($1.4M) by a small margin.

– Also worth noting that inventory has leveled off in the high teens through the first half of 2016- down 15% from the same time last year.


-Quail’s market posted one of the strongest quarters in recent memory with 9 sales- the 10 closed so far in 2016 brings Quail back on pace for another banner year.  The previous record was set in ’13 with 22 sales.

-The talk of the town is around the resurgence in demand for properties in Quail Meadows, which had 5 sales in Q2- already posting the most sales in a single year since its inception in ’92.

-We continue to see median house prices rise in Quail Lodge and anticipate the high water mark ($2.35M) could be eclipsed this year with a pending sale that’s listed at $2.695M.

– Tight inventory levels will be the main inhibitor of this market as demand remains high for both the Lodge and Meadows.