2Q14 Market Update

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With another quarter coming to a close we’ve pulled together our regular quarterly update on the Pebble Beach and prime Carmel markets; as always, there are a few interesting market patterns to note:

Pebble Beach:

  • Pebble Beach is on an annualized pace to match our all-time record set in 2000; that said, the preponderance of sales have been under $2M with reasonable activity between $2-3M, but some severe softness in the $6-10M range – in the past 6 months since we haven’t seen a single sale in that bracket.
  • 2nd quarter sales in Pebble matched Q1’s robust sales.  We also closed our listing along the 14th hole at $16.5M and represented the buyer of an off-market ocean front property in Pebble with an ask of $25M; the top of the market in Pebble has clearly rebounded.
  • Inventory levels are fairly balanced relative to demand, but for that $5-10M range, where demand is quiet and inventory stagnant.

Carmel:

  • Carmel Point has been red hot this year, with year-to-date sales on schedule to double past annual averages; the only thing that will likely slow that down is the tightening inventory levels – note the forward indicating ‘pending sales’ now shows zero properties in escrow there, a clear sign of slowing future activity.
  • On the other hand, the Golden Rectangle has been just slightly slower this year but has 13 properties in escrow which will catapult the sales data forward once they close.
  • Both markets were very strong in the $2-4M brackets last quarter, and year-to-date, with the Rectangle seeing a huge surge in the $4-6M bracket this quarter.

As we move into our peak selling season our forecast is for continuing tightening inventories in Carmel with quality properties finding ready demand.  In Pebble, we think the log jam between $5-10M will break, with buyers making tactical runs at the better properties and select sellers responding to those overtures.  As always, don’t hesitate to contact us with specific questions on properties or broader market trends.

Mike, Lynn and Jess

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