1Q’16 Quarterly Market Update

ellen Weekly Blog

Sales activity in 1Q’16 in Pebble Beach, Carmel, Carmel Highlands and Quail remained robust despite tight inventories throughout.  Below are the highlights for each region with detailed analysis in the following pages.

Pebble Beach –

– Overall, Pebble’s market tapered in 1Q’16, down slightly (6%) from 1Q’15’s pace of 31 sales.  Historically, the first quarter is relatively soft in Pebble but with 19 currently in escrow, we anticipate Pebble to edge back towards annual averages in 2Q’16.

– Central Pebble saw an uptick in activity this quarter with 13 sales; although this was slightly below the 17 that closed in MPCC, this was the highest market share (39%) we’ve seen for this region since 1999.

– The $3-4M bracket continues to thrive as it extends its hot-streak (6 sales) from last year’s record setting 14 sales. Just north, the $4-6M sector remains a soft-spot in Pebble with lagging demand and saturated inventory – 14 currently active, representing the most across Pebble’s price ranges.

– The top of the market has substantially picked up with 2 sales over $8M in 1Q’16- on pace to match the highest in over a decade.

Carmel –

– As with Pebble, the big story-line is the resurgence in demand at the top of the market. With 4 over $8M already sold and another in escrow, the top of Carmel is on a record pace. With 46 sales in 1Q’16, Carmel enjoyed a robust start, surpassing 1Q’15 by 15%- on pace to challenge 2015’s banner year.

–  Despite historically tight inventory levels in the Golden Rectangle, it had a robust start to the year, tying Northwest Carmel for most sales (13) in 1Q’16.

– Supply of listings is the tightest in Carmel Point (9 active), further tilting the needle towards a sellers’ market in that area.

– Median sales prices have spiked from 2015 levels in the Golden Rectangle ($2.425M) and Carmel Point ($2.885M) by 26% and 16% (respectively); the Golden Rectangle is 76% higher than the low of $1.375M in 2012 and the Point is up 92% from the historic low reached in 2011 ($1.5M).

Carmel Highlands –

-The pace of sales in the Highlands and Meadows slowed, returning to annual averages with 6 sales in 1Q’16, primarily driven by low inventory levels in both regions.

– The floor for this market continues to rise as there are no listings left below $1.5M in either region.

– The most active sector in 1Q’16 was $2-2.5M with 2 closed escrows and 2 new sales.

– There is some softness in the $3-4M bracket with 6 listings currently on the market and no activity since 2714 Pradera closed in December at $3.538M.

Quail Lodge & Meadows –

– Quail Meadows is the talk of the valley right now with the most sales activity seen in its history. The 5 currently in escrow will bring the total to 6 so far in 2016 – almost matching the past 3 years combined.

– Prices in Quail Meadows are balanced across the full spectrum with 5461 Quail Meadows Drive listed at $2.995M, 2 in the $3-4M bracket, 5449 Quail Way listed at $4.7M, 5464 Quail Way listed at $5.295M and 2 in the $6-8M bracket.

– Quail Lodge cooled off this quarter with one sale – 8022 River Place ($1.369M) just 1.86% off of list price. Velocity fluctuates greatly in Quail Lodge with an average of 10 sales per year but lows of 4-5 seen every few years. We anticipate 2016 to plateau as supply dwindles and sellers continue to test the $2M+ threshold for the area.